Public record
My Dota 2 Prediction Track Record
My published picks, wins and losses in one place. Every total below comes from the same match ledger. Results with conflicting fields are shown for review, not counted as wins or losses.
Accuracy
70%
721 / 1031 correct / picks
Accuracy by month
- Mar 202669%59/86
- Apr 202666%54/82
- May 202667%122/182
- Jun 202670%7/10
- Jul 202671%97/137
- Aug 202669%121/176
- Sept 202672%108/150
- Oct 202673%152/207
- Nov 2026100%1/1
Green: at or above average · amber: below · labels: correct / picks
Correct
721
Wrong
310
Pending
5
Needs review
0
By format
- BO166% · 49/74
- BO267% · 91/136
- BO371% · 564/800
- BO581% · 17/21
Streaks
Ordered by recorded match date/time, then match ID. Review records break a run; pending picks do not extend it.
- 6
- Currentcorrect
- 23
- Best winning run
- 4
- Longest losing run
Historical ELO reconstruction 895
Historical ELO estimates are recalculated and may differ from those originally displayed. They are model estimates, not bookmaker odds.
ELO baseline vs my selected picks
BO1 / BO3 / BO5 team picks only. Series conversion assumes independent games with a constant per-game ELO chance. These are model estimates, not my personal confidence or bookmaker odds.
| ELO | Mean ELO estimate | Correct / picks | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 40% | 23.9% | 62 / 104 | 60% |
| 40–<50% | 45.8% | 71 / 117 | 61% |
| 50–<60% | 54.4% | 143 / 217 | 66% |
| 60–<70% | 65.1% | 106 / 151 | 70% |
| 70–<80% | 74.8% | 95 / 120 | 79% |
| 80–100% | 87.8% | 153 / 186 | 82% |
Picks against the ELO favourite
Exactly the same eligible picks as the table: picked team’s unrounded series estimate < 50%. The two below-50% rows sum to this total. BO2 and draws are excluded.
133 / 221 · 60%
Correct / picks
Lowest-model-chance winning picks
My picks vs always backing ELO
Same eligible decided series; exact 50/50 ELO ties excluded.
+5.1 pts
I can disagree with ELO when choosing a team. This selected-pick table is not an unbiased calibration test of the ELO engine, nor a betting-return claim. A gap is disagreement with the baseline, not proof of profit.
136 BO2 picks count toward accuracy but not the two-way ELO analysis, because BO2 can end in a draw.
Latest reconciled results
- ✓ CorrectWorld Squad 0:1 CIS Squad2026-11-01
- ✓ CorrectTeam Spirit 2:0 GamerLegion2026-10-31
- ✓ CorrectTeam Yandex 2:0 GamerLegion2026-10-31
- ✓ CorrectTeam Spirit 2:1 Team Liquid2026-10-30
- ✓ CorrectTeam Liquid 2:0 OG2026-10-30
- ✓ CorrectTeam Spirit 2:1 PARIVISION2026-10-30
- ✕ WrongOG 0:2 GamerLegion2026-10-29
- ✓ CorrectPARIVISION 1:2 Team Yandex2026-10-29
- ✓ CorrectTeam Spirit 2:0 LEGION2026-10-29
- ✕ WrongTeam Liquid 2:0 Astra Invicta2026-10-29
By tournament
Show all 33 tournaments
Team-by-team accuracy
At least 10 reconciled results. Ranked by 90% Wilson bounds so tiny samples do not outrank established records.
Best-read teams
- 1
Execrationsmall sample100%12/12 correct
- 2
Team Yandex81%58/72 correct
- 3
PuckChamp84%26/31 correct - 4
RE.Arisesmall sample91%10/11 correct - 5
Natus Vincere79%30/38 correct
Hardest to call
- 1
Rune Eaters50%9/18 correct - 2
Team Liquid59%44/74 correct - 3Dawn Bulls50%8/16 correct
- 4
OG59%29/49 correct - 5
1win60%27/45 correct
Accuracy
68%
438 / 640 correct / picks
Accuracy by month
- Mar 202669%59/86
- Apr 202666%54/82
- May 202667%122/182
- Jun 202670%7/10
- Jul 202669%59/86
- Aug 202670%53/76
- Sept 202673%43/59
- Oct 202669%40/58
- Nov 2026100%1/1
Green: at or above average · amber: below · labels: correct / picks
Correct
438
Wrong
202
Pending
1
Needs review
0
By format
- BO166% · 49/74
- BO267% · 91/136
- BO369% · 289/418
- BO575% · 9/12
Streaks
Ordered by recorded match date/time, then match ID. Review records break a run; pending picks do not extend it.
- 6
- Currentcorrect
- 10
- Best winning run
- 4
- Longest losing run
Historical ELO reconstruction 504
Historical ELO estimates are recalculated and may differ from those originally displayed. They are model estimates, not bookmaker odds.
ELO baseline vs my selected picks
BO1 / BO3 / BO5 team picks only. Series conversion assumes independent games with a constant per-game ELO chance. These are model estimates, not my personal confidence or bookmaker odds.
| ELO | Mean ELO estimate | Correct / picks | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 40% | 27.9% | 28 / 41 | 68% |
| 40–<50% | 45.4% | 36 / 63 | 57% |
| 50–<60% | 55.0% | 68 / 118 | 58% |
| 60–<70% | 65.4% | 73 / 106 | 69% |
| 70–<80% | 74.6% | 70 / 89 | 79% |
| 80–100% | 88.9% | 72 / 87 | 83% |
Picks against the ELO favourite
Exactly the same eligible picks as the table: picked team’s unrounded series estimate < 50%. The two below-50% rows sum to this total. BO2 and draws are excluded.
64 / 104 · 62%
Correct / picks
Lowest-model-chance winning picks
My picks vs always backing ELO
Same eligible decided series; exact 50/50 ELO ties excluded.
+4.8 pts
I can disagree with ELO when choosing a team. This selected-pick table is not an unbiased calibration test of the ELO engine, nor a betting-return claim. A gap is disagreement with the baseline, not proof of profit.
136 BO2 picks count toward accuracy but not the two-way ELO analysis, because BO2 can end in a draw.
Latest reconciled results
- ✓ CorrectWorld Squad 0:1 CIS Squad2026-11-01
- ✓ CorrectTeam Spirit 2:0 GamerLegion2026-10-31
- ✓ CorrectTeam Yandex 2:0 GamerLegion2026-10-31
- ✓ CorrectTeam Spirit 2:1 Team Liquid2026-10-30
- ✓ CorrectTeam Liquid 2:0 OG2026-10-30
- ✓ CorrectTeam Spirit 2:1 PARIVISION2026-10-30
- ✕ WrongOG 0:2 GamerLegion2026-10-29
- ✓ CorrectPARIVISION 1:2 Team Yandex2026-10-29
- ✓ CorrectTeam Spirit 2:0 LEGION2026-10-29
- ✕ WrongTeam Liquid 2:0 Astra Invicta2026-10-29
By tournament
Show all 13 tournaments
Team-by-team accuracy
At least 10 reconciled results. Ranked by 90% Wilson bounds so tiny samples do not outrank established records.
Best-read teams
- 1
- 2
REKONIX81%21/26 correct - 3
Nigma Galaxy76%38/50 correct
- 4
Vici Gaming78%28/36 correct - 5
PARIVISION73%52/71 correct
Hardest to call
- 1
Yellow Submarinesmall sample46%6/13 correct
- 2Team Liquid59%44/74 correct
- 3OG59%27/46 correct
- 4
- 5
PlayTime57%12/21 correct
Accuracy
72%
283 / 391 correct / picks
Accuracy by month
- Jul 202675%38/51
- Aug 202668%68/100
- Sept 202671%65/91
- Oct 202675%112/149
Green: at or above average · amber: below · labels: correct / picks
Correct
283
Wrong
108
Pending
4
Needs review
0
By format
- BO372% · 275/382
- BO589% · 8/9
Streaks
Ordered by recorded match date/time, then match ID. Review records break a run; pending picks do not extend it.
- 1
- Currentcorrect
- 23
- Best winning run
- 4
- Longest losing run
Historical ELO reconstruction 391
Historical ELO estimates are recalculated and may differ from those originally displayed. They are model estimates, not bookmaker odds.
ELO baseline vs my selected picks
BO1 / BO3 / BO5 team picks only. Series conversion assumes independent games with a constant per-game ELO chance. These are model estimates, not my personal confidence or bookmaker odds.
| ELO | Mean ELO estimate | Correct / picks | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| < 40% | 21.3% | 34 / 63 | 54% |
| 40–<50% | 46.3% | 35 / 54 | 65% |
| 50–<60% | 53.7% | 75 / 99 | 76% |
| 60–<70% | 64.4% | 33 / 45 | 73% |
| 70–<80% | 75.3% | 25 / 31 | 81% |
| 80–100% | 86.8% | 81 / 99 | 82% |
Picks against the ELO favourite
Exactly the same eligible picks as the table: picked team’s unrounded series estimate < 50%. The two below-50% rows sum to this total. BO2 and draws are excluded.
69 / 117 · 59%
Correct / picks
Lowest-model-chance winning picks
My picks vs always backing ELO
Same eligible decided series; exact 50/50 ELO ties excluded.
+5.5 pts
I can disagree with ELO when choosing a team. This selected-pick table is not an unbiased calibration test of the ELO engine, nor a betting-return claim. A gap is disagreement with the baseline, not proof of profit.
Latest reconciled results
- ✓ CorrectCyberHero 2:0 Zero Tenacity2026-10-25
- ✕ WrongNemiga Gaming 2:0 IC x Insanity2026-10-25
- ✓ Correctsalamit 0:2 Team Lynx2026-10-25
- ✓ CorrectTheBot$ 0:2 CyberHero2026-10-24
- ✓ CorrectYellow Submarine 2:0 Dawn Bulls2026-10-24
- ✓ CorrectTeam Synapse 2:1 Zero Tenacity2026-10-24
- ✕ WrongTeam Lynx 0:2 Nemiga Gaming2026-10-24
- ✓ CorrectIC x Insanity 1:2 HULIGANI2026-10-23
- ✕ WrongTeam Lynx 0:2 IC x Insanity2026-10-23
- ✕ WrongTeam Synapse 2:1 Dawn Bulls2026-10-23
By tournament
Show all 20 tournaments
Team-by-team accuracy
At least 10 reconciled results. Ranked by 90% Wilson bounds so tiny samples do not outrank established records.
Best-read teams
- 1
- 2Natus Vinceresmall sample100%12/12 correct
- 3PuckChamp84%26/31 correct
- 4RE.Arisesmall sample91%10/11 correct
- 5
Power Rangers82%18/22 correct
Hardest to call
- 1Dawn Bulls50%8/16 correct
- 2
Team Synapse59%20/34 correct - 3Rune Eaterssmall sample50%5/10 correct
- 4
Team Lynx62%26/42 correct - 5
Kalmychatasmall sample57%8/14 correct
How this record is counted
Accuracy counts completed, checked results. Pending matches and records awaiting correction are excluded. For BO2, a team pick needs a 2–0 win; a 1–1 result is correct only when a draw was predicted.
Counting rules
Accuracy = correct ÷ (correct + wrong). The score, recorded winner and correct/incorrect flag must agree. Incomplete or nonstandard scores, including shortened forfeits, stay under review until checked.
ELO comparisons use BO1, BO3 and BO5 team picks only; BO2 and draw picks are excluded. An underdog pick has an unrounded series-win estimate below 50%. Publication-time estimates and historical reconstructions are counted separately.
Every published pick
Search the complete ledger, including losses and records held for review. CSV exports the current filters; percentages are model estimates, not sportsbook prices.
| Date (UTC) | Match / pick | Result | ELO series estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 Division 2 | GamerLegion vs CyberHero EPL Masters III · BO3 Pick: GamerLegion | Pending —:— | Not applicable / unavailable |
| 2026-11-02 Division 2 | Natus Vincere vs Nemiga Gaming EPL Masters III · BO3 Pick: Natus Vincere | Pending —:— | Not applicable / unavailable |
| 2026-11-02 Division 2 | OG vs Yellow Submarine EPL Masters III · BO3 Pick: Yellow Submarine | Pending —:— | Not applicable / unavailable |
| 2026-11-02 Division 2 | LEGION vs HULIGANI EPL Masters III · BO3 Pick: LEGION | Pending —:— | Not applicable / unavailable |
| 2026-11-01 Division 1 | Team Yandex vs Team Spirit PARI Universe · BO5 Pick: Team Yandex | Pending —:— | Not applicable / unavailable |
| 2026-11-01 Division 1 | World Squad vs CIS Squad PARI Universe · BO1 Pick: CIS Squad | Correct 0:1 | 50.0% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-31 Division 1 | Team Spirit vs GamerLegion PARI Universe · BO3 Pick: Team Spirit | Correct 2:0 | 91.4% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-31 Division 1 | Team Yandex vs GamerLegion PARI Universe · BO3 Pick: Team Yandex | Correct 2:0 | 95.1% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-30 Division 1 | Team Spirit vs Team Liquid PARI Universe · BO3 Pick: Team Spirit | Correct 2:1 | 79.0% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-30 Division 1 | Team Liquid vs OG PARI Universe · BO3 Pick: Team Liquid | Correct 2:0 | 73.8% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-30 Division 1 | Team Spirit vs PARIVISION PARI Universe · BO3 Pick: Team Spirit | Correct 2:1 | 36.1% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-29 Division 1 | OG vs GamerLegion PARI Universe · BO3 Pick: OG | Wrong 0:2 | 50.9% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-29 Division 1 | PARIVISION vs Team Yandex PARI Universe · BO3 Pick: Team Yandex | Correct 1:2 | 49.4% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-29 Division 1 | Team Spirit vs LEGION PARI Universe · BO3 Pick: Team Spirit | Correct 2:0 | 99.2% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-29 Division 1 | Team Liquid vs Astra Invicta PARI Universe · BO3 Pick: Astra Invicta | Wrong 2:0 | 35.7% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-28 Division 1 | GamerLegion vs LEGION PARI Universe · BO3 Pick: GamerLegion | Correct 2:1 | 90.0% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-28 Division 1 | Team Spirit vs OG PARI Universe · BO3 Pick: Team Spirit | Wrong 1:2 | 93.0% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-28 Division 1 | Team Yandex vs Astra Invicta PARI Universe · BO3 Pick: Team Yandex | Correct 2:1 | 93.7% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-28 Division 1 | PARIVISION vs Team Liquid PARI Universe · BO3 Pick: PARIVISION | Correct 2:1 | 88.7% Historical reconstruction |
| 2026-10-27 Division 1 | BetBoom Team vs LEGION PARI Universe · BO1 Pick: BetBoom Team | Wrong 0:1 | 91.6% Historical reconstruction |