The International 2026 Preview
The biggest tournament of the year is here. The International 2026 isn’t just any event—it’s the ultimate pressure test in Dota 2. History shows that even the best teams can melt under TI’s intense pressure, and the underdogs might rise out of nowhere. Every team in Shanghai will feel the weight of thousands of fans, millions of dollars on the line, and the knowledge that this is where reputations are truly made (or broken). At TI, stamina and mental resilience often matter as much as raw skill.
The International 2026 Location Announcement - Shanghai - August 2026https://t.co/QKHLYL1rJB#Dota2 #TI2026 pic.twitter.com/UDZgt1NhkA
— The International (@dota2ti) September 14, 2025
So who actually has the best shot at the Aegis this year? I’ve crunched the numbers (blending my own model’s ELO-based probabilities with some good old-fashioned Dota sense) and grouped the direct invites and qualified teams into rough win-probability tiers:
The direct invited teams
Aurora Gaming
Aurora (chance to win ~21%) has been the model of consistency all year. They’ve reached the finals of just about every major event in 2026, and their five-man execution is tuned to perfection. Nightfall and Mikoto give this team both solid late-game insurance and explosive playmaking. Aurora rarely beats itself; it's disciplined, experienced, and hungry. The only knock: they’ve finished runner-up a few times (PGL Wallachia, DreamLeague S29) instead of taking home gold. But going into TI, no team looks more reliably elite. If they can overcome their grand finals jitters, they have the highest chance to win it all.
BetBoom Team
BoomBoys (chance to win ~18%)—Well, they will play under BoomBoys (because Valve does not accept betting names for the teams) and are a high-risk, high-reward stock. On a good day, their laning and aggression can destroy anyone (remember their 3-map lost entire tournament run at Wallachia?). But on a bad day, they can implode on stage as they did at DreamLeague S29. Gpk~ is arguably the best mid laner pound-for-pound, and Save’s roam can win games by minute 15. The question is whether their hyper-aggressive style can survive TI’s marathon format. If they adapt to the slower, higher-stakes games at TI, BoomBoys have the firepower to win it all. If they don’t, the chaotic nature of TI might punish their all-in tendencies.
Team Yandex
Don’t sleep on Team Yandex (chance to win ~22%). Yes, they had a shaky patch earlier in the year, but they just roared back to win BLAST Slam VII, beating top competition in Copenhagen to remind everyone why they’re a big deal. This is essentially Team Yandex 2.0. They took a gamble by skipping DreamLeague to refresh, and it paid off with a BLAST championship. Momentum matters, and Yandex has it. If they carry their BLAST form into TI, they’re absolutely one of the teams to beat. I give them equal odds to the other top dogs—this team knows how to win on big stages. The only thing is, every single team is looking at how to beat their early aggression. And someone will figure them out.
Team Falcons
The reigning TI champs (chance to win ~17%) enter as a bit of a sleeper. They haven’t topped many charts this season, but come on – this team lifted the Aegis last year for a reason. ATF (Amar) and Malr1ne anchor a squad that thrives in late-game chaos and never backs down. They proved at TI 2025 (and with a solid 4th at DreamLeague S29) that they have ice in their veins when games go 60+ minutes. The slower patch 7.41d suits them just fine. Many teams are overlooking the Falcons due to a quiet season, but I suspect they have another gear when the lights are brightest. Never count out the defending champions.
Team Liquid
Liquid (chance to win ~12%) is the usual contender that always seems to be in the mix but hasn’t lifted a trophy this year (yet). They’re coming off a mediocre showing at DreamLeague, but historically this team bounces back fast. Nisha is the definition of consistency in mid, and miCKe does the dirty work at carry. The key for Liquid is to blend their fast-paced style with patience – something they occasionally struggle with in long games. TI often forces Liquid to slow down and play against type, which can throw them off. They’re a top-8 staple at TI in any case, and if they find just a bit more late-game composure, a championship run is not out of the question.
1w Team
1w Team (chance to win ~10%) - This is essentially the ex-Tundra Esports roster playing under a new banner, but the results haven’t been pretty lately. They got bounced in some Tier 2 online cups and looked shaky at DreamLeague (a far cry from their former TI-winning glory). It seems the current meta hasn’t clicked for them yet—their trademark early aggression doesn’t pay off like it used to. Still, this roster is filled with TI champions. If they can refine their approach (maybe embrace the slower tempo?), they could surprise everyone. Right now, though, I consider them a dangerous dark horse rather than a front-runner.
Xtreme Gaming
Xtreme (chance to win ~8%) is… well, a bit of an enigma. This is a star-studded Chinese squad (Ame is on the team, need I say more?) that has been its own worst enemy. Their drafting has been questionable, and internal stability seems shaky (we all saw the sudden “GG” calls in recent tournaments). In terms of raw skill, of course they can hang with anyone—they even popped off at times during the season. But TI demands consistency and nerves of steel, which Xtreme hasn’t shown yet. It’s possible they rally and make me eat my words, but unless something drastic changed in the last bootcamp, Xtreme’s likely a mid-pack finisher at best.
P.S: Last year they had similar problems and wanted to disband before TI, yet they fought Falcons in the finals of TI 2025.
The Qualifiers (9 slots left)
We’ve got nine more teams coming through regional qualifiers to round out the 16-team TI field (one from each region, plus multiple from the large EU region). And some giants still have to fight their way to Shanghai:
South America (1 slot):
Talk about brutal – only one SA team goes to TI, and it will likely be decided by an LGD Gaming vs. PlayTime showdown. Both absolutely deserve a spot. It’s a coin flip, and it’s a shame they both can’t go.
China (2 slots):
With Xtreme Gaming already directly invited, China’s qualifier is effectively Vici Gaming’s to lose. Expect Vici to grab one slot. The second Chinese qualifier could be anyone.
Vici Gaming
Vici Gaming (chance to win ~5%), as I predicted, took the SECOND SLOT. The fact that they dropped out from the upper bracket is insane to me. But anyway, I am happy to see Bach again at the International. I can see some upsets from Vici against greedy-playing teams, but I don't think they can hang out with the big dogs.
Team Resilience
Team Resilience (chance to win ~5%) won the slot at the International. Congratulations, and let's see what they can bring back to the table. As far as I saw, they have a similar playstyle to Xtreme Gaming, somehow dragging the games to the late game. Let's see how this will work against EU teams.
North America (1 slot):
GamerLegion basically has the NA slot in the bag. The region’s been thin this year, and GL has crushed all domestic competition. Once they land at TI, however, they’ll find the waters much deeper.
Southeast Asia (1 slot):
Another cutthroat qualifier. OG will be battling it out with REKONIX and GLYPH for the single TI slot.
Europe (4 slots, WEU+EEU):
The EU qualifier is stacked with sharks. Team Spirit and PARIVISION (yes, the team that just won DreamLeague S29) are both in this thing due to the weird DPC points distribution – which means two of the world’s best still need to qualify. I expect both to snag slots without much drama. That leaves a massive fight for the remaining two spots among the likes of Nigma Galaxy, Virtus.pro, MOUZ, and others.
Final Take:
At the end of the day, TI is all about who adapts and stays cool when everything’s on the line. The invited teams have the edge going in, but two of the world’s top squads (Spirit and PARIVISION) are fighting in the qualifiers and will likely shift the balance once they join the field. My model says Aurora Gaming, PARIVISION and Team Yandex are marginal front-runners, but only by a hair – by no means does that guarantee anything. If TI has taught us one thing, it’s to expect the unexpected. We’ll find out soon enough who can survive the pressure, seize their moment, and etch their name into Dota history. See you in Shanghai; bring on the madness.